Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
